I don’t understand it.

A new Pokémon set drops, the pull experience is clearly punishing… and hype increases.

People don’t say, “Ugh, this feels bad, I’ll skip it.”

They say:

• “This set is brutal.”
• “The chase is insane.”
• “Hits feel earned.”
• “This is going to be legendary.”

And I’m sitting here thinking:

Why are we excited that the gambling is harder?
Why are we asking for our dopamine to come with a boss fight?

Let’s unpack what’s going on — with psychology and real pull math.

The Psychology: Our Brains Love Unpredictable Rewards

Pokémon packs run on the same reward structure as slot machines: variable ratio reinforcement.

You don’t know when a reward is coming. You just know it could.

That “could” is the hook.

When rewards are unpredictable, anticipation stays high. Your brain keeps going:

Maybe the next one.
Maybe the next one.
Maybe the next one.

If the rewards are too frequent, your brain adapts. It stops spiking as hard.

If rewards are rarer (or feel rarer), the chase stays emotionally “alive.”

Harder doesn’t reduce engagement — it often increases it.

The Math: “Normal Pull Rates” Can Still Feel Miserable

Here’s the part most people blur together:

A set can have normal pull rates and still feel brutal because the hit pool is huge.

In Ascended Heroes, the main high-rarity pool looks like:

• 7 MARs
• 33 IRs
• 14 URs
• 22 SIRs

So even if pulling an SIR is a known rate… pulling your SIR is a totally different situation.

And we can quantify that using your dataset.

Pull Data (20,747 packs)

Based on 20,747 tracked packs, the observed pull rates break down like this:

• MAR (Marnie Art Rare): 1 in 34 packs
• IR (Illustration Rare): 1 in 11 packs
• UR (Ultra Rare): 1 in 19 packs
• SIR (Special Illustration Rare): 1 in 82 packs
• Gold (Hyper Rare): 1 in 902 packs
• God Packs: 1 in 1,296 packs

These numbers reflect the probability of pulling a card from each rarity tier.

And that distinction matters.

Because those rates tell you how often you’ll hit a card of that rarity — not how often you’ll hit the specific card you’re chasing.

That’s where the experience shifts from “normal pull rates” to “why can’t I pull this thing?”

Category Odds vs Target Odds

Special Illustration Rare: the headline problem

You pull an SIR about 1 in 82 packs.

But there are 22 SIRs.

If each SIR is equally likely (a simplifying assumption, but a useful baseline), then the chance your SIR appears is:

1 / (82 × 22) = 1 / 1,804 packs

So the “normal” SIR pull rate can still translate into:

~1 in 1,804 packs for a specific SIR.

That’s dilution.

Not “rigged rates.” Not conspiracy. Just a huge pool.

What does that cost?

• At $20 CAD/pack: 1,804 × 20 = $36,080 CAD
• At $8 CAD MSRP: 1,804 × 8 = $14,432 CAD

Important: this is expectation math, not destiny.
You can hit earlier. You can go longer. Randomness is spicy like that.

But it explains the lived experience: “I can’t pull my chase.”

Because statistically… yeah, you might not.

Illustration Rare: feels common, still painful for one card

IRs land about 1 in 11 packs.

But there are 33 IRs.

So a specific IR is roughly:

1 / (11 × 33) = 1 / 363 packs

Cost:

• $20 CAD: 363 × 20 = $7,260 CAD
• $8 CAD: 363 × 8 = $2,904 CAD

This is why people say, “I keep pulling IRs but never the one I want.”

That can be true without any change in pull rates.

Ultra Rare: smaller pool, easier to target

URs are 1 in 19 packs, with 14 URs.

Specific UR:

1 / (19 × 14) = 1 / 266 packs

Cost:

• $20 CAD: 266 × 20 = $5,320 CAD
• $8 CAD: 266 × 8 = $2,128 CAD

MAR: surprisingly “targetable”

MARs are 1 in 34 packs, with 7 MARs.

Specific MAR:

1 / (34 × 7) = 1 / 238 packs

Cost:

• $20 CAD: 238 × 20 = $4,760 CAD
• $8 CAD: 238 × 8 = $1,904 CAD

Why This Creates Hype Instead of Backlash

Now we mash psychology + math together.

A massive hit pool creates:

• More near misses (“I got an SIR… just not mine.”)
• More drought stories (which become content)
• More mythology around the chase
• More status when someone actually hits the target

Hard sets don’t just create scarcity.

They create stories.

And stories are social currency.

Someone pulling their specific SIR isn’t just “opening a pack.”

It’s a plot twist.

The “Earned” Feeling (Effort Justification)

There’s also a deeply annoying human feature called effort justification.

If something costs you time, money, and frustration — your brain becomes more likely to decide it was worth it.

Hard chase → bigger emotional payoff.

Even if the payoff is, objectively, a rectangle of cardboard.

(We love cardboard. We are not ashamed. But we should be aware of what’s happening.)

The Dark Little Trap: Feeling “Due”

After a long drought, people feel like a hit is inevitable.

But every pack is an independent event.

You aren’t “due.”

That’s the gambler’s fallacy — and it is the reason casinos have carpet.

So… Why Do People Like Hard Sets?

Because:

• The reward is unpredictable (dopamine stays high)
• The hit pool is huge (target odds get brutal)
• Brutal odds create scarcity and stories
• Stories create community hype
• Hype makes the set feel important

“Hard to pull” becomes “worth chasing.”

Even when, financially, the smart move is usually to buy the single.

My Take

I don’t want my gambling to be harder.

I want my collecting to be fun.

And those are not the same thing.

A set can be gorgeous without being punishing.
A chase can be exciting without being mathematically oppressive.
And a “normal pull rate” can still create a miserable experience if the pool is big enough.

Which is exactly what your data shows.